Week 9 of the Road to 272 Bets was the week of bad beats. A last-minute safety on Thursday Night Football, a red zone fumble by the Texans, and a Jayden Daniels hail mary all resulted in tough losses. When the dust settled, we finished with a record of 8-8 for -0.75 units. The good news is we're still sitting profitable for the season at 64-58-1 for +2.11 units.
The San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers will enjoy their BYE in Week 9, which means we have 15 games to watch and bet on, starting with a Halloween night showdown between the Houston Texans and the New York Jets.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out ahead of the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 9 game.
NFL Week 9 Bets for Every GameTexans vs. Jets Prediction
Believe it or not, I think the Jets have been better than their record indicates. They've lost every coin flip game they've been in this season which has made their record look worse than it should be. They rank 13th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.4), which is one spot above the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (+0.3). There is more to winning football games than moving the ball down the field and preventing the other team from doing so, but there are signs that this team has played better than the public narrative has been.
The opposite could be true for the Houston Texans, who I don't think are as good as their 6-2 record shows. Their offensive hasn't been nearly explosive as they were last season and C.J. Stroud has regressed a small amount from his rookie season. Houston's offense ranks just 20th in the NFL in EPA/Play and 25th in offensive success rate.
The Texans can thank their improved defense for their record, but that's one area the Jets are better in. New York still has an elite defense that could give Houston's offense some issues.
The Jets are small favorites for a reason. I'll back New York to bounce back with a win.
Broncos vs. Ravens Prediction
Another week, another bet on the Broncos. Their defense is too dominant a unit to make them this big of underdogs. They lead the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and opponent yards per play, allowing just 4.4 yards per snap.
Then there's the Ravens defense that has a ton of problems. Their secondary continues to be one of the worst in the league, giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt and ranking 28th in opponent dropback EPA.
The Ravens' only hope of covering big spreads this season is for their offense to score at such a high rate that their opponent can't keep pace like they did against the Buccaneers a few weeks back. Unfortunately for them, the Broncos defense isn't going to allow them to put up 40+ points like they've done several times this season.
Raiders vs. Bengals Prediction
Betting on and watching the Raiders offense is one of the most painful experiences you can have this NFL season. Their run game is completely non-existent and while Gardner Minshew can make some big throws at times, his continually turning the ball over sets the other team up in great scoring positions. Their offense now ranks dead last in EPA per play, even worse than the lowly Panthers.
The Bengals offense, especially if Tee Higgins is able to play as expected, will be too much for Las Vegas to handle. They're built to put up major points against bad defenses and that's exactly what I expect to happen on Sunday.
Patriots vs. Titans Prediction
I don't know if I've ever seen a team whose offense and special teams continuously hand their opponents wins week after week. The Titans' defense remains elite, but it hasn't mattered much because the other two-thirds of the team is playing horrifically.
With that being said, I'm going to back Tennessee once again, this time as favorites when they host the New England Patriots. The Patriots aren't good on either side of the ball, meaning the only good unit on the field in this game will be the Titans defense, which I'm hoping will be good enough to elevate them to a win for a change.
Saints vs. Panthers Prediction
The mistake of getting cute and betting on the Panthers because they "have to cover the spread eventually" or "they can't be this bad, can they?" is a trap I've fallen for too many times. The fact of the matter is they're a historically bad team on both sides of the ball and there's a chance Bryce Young starts again in Week 9, which would be a death sentence for their chances to win this game.
New Orleans is expected to get Derek Carr back for this game and this is a completely different team with him at quarterback.
Before placing a bet on this game, just remember the Panthers have an average scoring margin of -18.4 this season, the worst mark in the NFL by 7.5 points.
Cowboys vs. Falcons Prediction
My upset pick of the week is the Cowboys to take down the Falcons. Analytically, the Cowboys have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season but I have to think they're a team that's going to see some positive regression. They have almost the exact same roster as last season when they went 12-5 and ranked near the top of the league in almost every metric.
When it comes to the Falcons, I have some major concerns about their defense. Their only hope to win games is to have their offense put up 30+ a game, which they've managed to do more often than not, but if their offense stumbles at all, they'll lose. They're 23rd in opponent EPA per play and 26th in opponent success rate. Arguably the most concerning aspect of their defense is their inability to stop teams on third down, ranking 30th in opponent third down conversion rate (49.04%).
The Cowboys get back on track with a win this week.
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
The Dolphins are a different team with Tua at quarterback and now is a good time to buy low on them. It's also worth noting that despite their defense not having their best game last week against the Cardinals, they still rank inside the top half of the NFL in virtually every single metric.
Much like my bet on the Cowboys, this is a wager on a team that I still have faith in when healthy. They may not be able to beat the Bills, but I love them getting 6.5 points against their divisional rival.
Chargers vs. Browns Prediction
The Browns are clearly a different team with Jameis Winston at quarterback. The Browns were able to upset the Ravens in his first start while averaging 6.1 yards per play, the 10th-best mark across the NFL last week. I envision them being able to do some damage against a Chargers defense that has been largely overperforming this season. Their defense has benefitted from playing the worst defenses in the NFL to start the year, including the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, Broncos, and Saints without Carr.
Meanwhile, the Chargers offense has started to find its rhythm and Ladd McConkey had his breakout game against the Saints last week.
Despite the Chargers being a strong UNDER bet all season, I think we'll see some regression in that area on Sunday. I love the OVER at 42.5.
Commanders vs. Giants Prediction
I'm done betting against the Washington Commanders. Their offense has been truly elite and we've seen enough from them to know that it's going to continue. They lead the NFL in EPA per play by a significant margin and they're effective both on the ground and through the air. Their defense has also started to play better of late too, ranking 12th in opponent EPA per play dating back to Week 6.
The Giants are simply overmatched in this game and I'm surprised the spread isn't bigger.
Jaguars vs. Eagles Prediction
I meant it last week when I said the Eagles are hitting their stride and getting hot. I think in a few week's time, we're going to look at this team as a legitimate Super Bowl contender and a top-three team in the conference. They lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+2.1) over their last three games and have improved in a big way defensively while also getting healthy on the offense.
They're now sixth in the league in EPA per play and second in opponent EPA per play since Week 6. Their defense was a weak point early in the season but their two rookie cornerbacks have stepped up lately and now they're a dangerous unit for any team to face.
They should have no problem moving the ball against the worst secondary in the league. The Jaguars are in the midst of an implosion and currently rank dead last in the NFL in opponent dropback EPA and 31st in opponent yards per pass attempt.
The Jaguars offense is going to have to have an A+ game to keep them within reach in this one. If they don't the Eagles are going to run away with the win and cover this spread with ease.
Bears vs. Cardinals Prediction
Kyler Murray has a tough test ahead of him in the Bears, who rank second in the NFL in opponent dropback EPA and sixth in opponent dropback success rate. The Bears' defense hasn't got enough credit for being a dominant unit this season. If Chicago can get any level of production from its offense, they can beat Arizona on the road.
Thankfully for them, the Cardinals' defense is one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per play and dead last in opponent success rate. Surely, the Bears can't have a dud performance against a bad defense two weeks in a row.
Rams vs. Seahawks Prediction
The Rams are a different animal with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back to being healthy, as they showed last week on Thursday Night Football. With that being said, their defense still has a ton of issues. They rank 25th in opponent EPA, 24th in opponent success rate, and 26th in opponent yards per play (5.8).
The Seahawks' defense has also been hot and cold at times this season, but has been 27th in opponent EPA per play since Week 5.
I expect an offensive shootout in a game that should have a total in the 50s. With it being set at 48.5, I'll bet the OVER.
Lions vs. Packers Prediction
We have yet to find out the status for Jordan Love in this game, but even if he plays I still think the Lions can get the job done. We all know how well-rounded their offense is, but their defense and special teams give them the extra edge that allows them to win games on a weekly basis.
Their defense, which used to be looked at as a weakness, has been by far the best defense in the NFL since Week 5. In fact, they lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play during that stretch at -0.258 with the next closest mark in that stretch being the Eagles at -0.165.
If the Lions' defense continues playing at this level, they're going to be the Super Bowl favorites sooner rather than later.
Colts vs. Vikings Prediction
It's baffling to me that the Colts are able to keep games close with Anthony Richardson as their quarterback. He has been not only the worst quarterback in the NFL this season, but has been one of the worst quarterbacks we've seen in recent memory. He ranks dead last in EPA + CPOE (expect points added plus completion percentage over expected) by a wide margin, coming in at a worse mark than the likes of Andy Dalton, Deshaun Watson, WIll Levis, and Spencer Rattler.
Things won't get any easier for him this week when the Colts have to take on one of the most elite defenses in the NFL in the Vikings. Their only hope is to continue to run the ball successfully but it'll be tough to do that against a Vikings defense that leads the NFL in opponent rush EPA and coming in at second in opponent rush success rate.
It's time for Minnesota to bounce back in a big way.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Prediction
Just like last week when I backed the Raiders as 10-point underdogs, the Chiefs haven't played well enough this season to deserve being this big of favorites. Despite being 7-0, they're just 14th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.3.
Last week, the Buccaneers proved they can still move the ball without their top two receivers. Leaning on their run game and their tight end, Cade Otton, is enough to get them on the board a handful of times throughout the game.
Believe it or not, Baker Mayfield has been the better quarterback this season, ranking eighth in EPA + CPOE composite while Mahomes comes in at 13th.
I'll back the Bucs to keep this game relatively close.
