Pep Guardiola saw his side completely outplayed in the middle of the park at Aston Villa, and the 1-0 defeat was not just a blip
"If you ask me today, my feeling is that we're going to win the Premier League," Pep Guardiola told reporters before Manchester City's trip to Aston Villa. "If we play at the levels that we showed against Liverpool and Tottenham, we're going to do it again."
Guardiola has always been a confident character, but it was a surprise to hear him make such a bold early prediction. In previous campaigns, the City boss did his utmost to play down title talk until the trophy was mathematically secured, in a bid to make sure his players did not take their eye off the ball.
That approach has helped City finish top of the pile in four of the last five seasons as Guardiola's side have emerged as the dominant force in English football. But something seems to be off this time around, with the glorious scenes that followed their Champions League final win over Inter on June 10 now a distant memory.
City have taken a big step back since clinching the treble on that fateful night in Istanbul. Villa picked up a 1-0 victory against the champions on Wednesday night, which left the Citizens six points behind leaders Arsenal – but it was the manner of the defeat that was most alarming.
Usually when City lose, it's after being stung on the counter, with the opposition spending most of the game sitting back in numbers to try to deal with constant attacking waves. But Villa were superior in every department and should have won by a far greater margin.
Unai Emery's team had 22 shots at goal compared to City's two – which both came in the 11th minute – and the visitors didn't even manage to win a single corner. Leon Bailey's deflected effort in the 74th minute was the only difference between the two sides on paper, but City couldn't match Villa's creativity or energy.
The West Midlands outfit played without fear and took the game to City, which was probably the plan from the moment they knew that Rodri was not going to be involved. The Spain international was suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season in City's 3-3 draw with Spurs, and once again, they were way below their best in his absence.
The fact is, City have become far too reliant on Rodri this season. And if Guardiola doesn't fix his broken midfield soon, a record-breaking fourth successive title will soon fade into the distance.
GettyThe Rodri effect
Rodri also served a suspension after being shown a red card in City's 2-0 win against Nottingham Forest on September 23. He had to watch on from the sidelines as his team-mates fell to three consecutive defeats, with Newcastle knocking them out of the Carabao Cup before narrow losses at Wolves and Arsenal.
In their four games without Rodri, City have only managed to score a solitary goal, which shows that he is equally as important to the proper function of their attack as he is to the defence. The 27-year-old is a master at playing passes under pressure and his presence is crucial to City's ability to build from the back effectively.
He can also be decisive in the final third, as evidenced by his haul of ten goal contributions from 18 appearances so far in 2023-24. Guardiola has described Rodri as "maybe the best, or in the top two or three holding midfielders in the world", which is undeniable, but City didn't have this problem last season.
In fact, you could never previously accuse them of being a one-man team. Guardiola sides are usually well-oiled machines, with world-class players occupying every position – but beyond Rodri, the engine room is suddenly looking rusty.
Advertisement(C)Getty imagesGundogan-shaped hole
Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne and Norwegian goal machine Erling Haaland shared most of the credit for City's run to the treble last season, but Ilkay Gundogan was the unsung hero. The German maestro scored 11 goals, including a brace in the FA Cup final against Manchester United, and his ingenuity on and off the ball gave City their X-factor.
Gundogan was the first signing of Guardiola's reign at the Etihad Stadium, and certainly the best value for money of the lot. City paid just £21 million ($26m) to prise him away from Borussia Dortmund in 2016, and he went on to record 60 goals and 40 assists in 304 appearances for the club, winning a grand total of 14 trophies.
Age hasn't slowed Gundogan down either, which is why it was a surprise that they didn't fight harder to keep him at the club beyond the summer. City were only prepared to offer the midfielder a one-year extension, and opened negotiations too late.
"In the end, it wasn't about a year or two. It didn't hit the runtime," Gundogan told in September. "City waited a relatively long time for the talks to really get more intense. If that had happened a little earlier, the starting position would have been different."
Barcelona snapped Gundogan up upon the expiration of his contract, and he's quickly established himself as a key member of Xavi's starting XI. That's mainly due to his versatility, with Barca able to call on him to fill in as a No.10, a No.6 and even as a more traditional box-to-box midfielder.
The 33-year-old is a chameleon that oozes quality and composure, and City have lost their balance since his departure.
GettyDe Bruyne disaster
Guardiola has also faced some criticism for rushing De Bruyne back from the hamstring injury that saw him limp out in the first-half City's Champions League final win. The Belgian spent the whole of pre-season in the treatment room, but still managed to earn a place in the starting line-up for an opening day Premier League clash with Burnley.
Sure enough, disaster struck with just 21 minutes on the clock at Turf Moor, as De Bruyne was forced to withdraw. Guardiola later confirmed he had injured the same hamstring, before adding: "Maybe it was my mistake."
De Bruyne underwent surgery to solve the problem, and was initially expected to be out until the new year. The 32-year-old has, however, been included in City's Club World Cup squad, with their first game of the tournament set to take place on December 19.
It remains to be seen whether Guardiola will take another risk on De Bruyne in Saudi Arabia, but there is no doubt that City need their star playmaker back as soon as possible. He is the difference-maker for the European champions, the man who can conjure up something out of nothing in the blink of an eye.
City weren't always perfect last season either, but De Bruyne's magic would often compensate for the team's minor failings as a unit. There is no one else in the game that can put the ball on a sixpence or find the tightest corner of the net from seemingly impossible angles like De Bruyne, whose technical quality is simply a joy to behold.
Gundogan was able to cover for the Belgian at times, but now Guardiola is missing a creative spark. He might insist that City played well in their recent draws against Liverpool and Spurs with Rodri on the pitch, but they still weren't close to their dazzling best, and something needs to change heading into a crucial festive period.
(C)GettyImagesTransfer failings
Despite being unable to call on Rodri and De Bruyne at Villa, Guardiola was not exactly left short on options in midfield. Mateo Kovacic, Matheus Nunes and Kalvin Phillips were all fit and raring to go – the trio that has set City back £123m ($155m) in transfer fees across the past two summer windows.
But the Catalan tactician is well known for his tinkering, and ended up opting for John Stones and Manuel Akanji in holding roles instead. Stones was thrown straight back in at the deep end after recovering from a hip injury that had kept him out of action for two months, and unsurprisingly, did not live up to his 'Barnsley Beckenbauer' moniker.
City often just reverted to five in defence with Stones and Akanji operating as wing-backs, which allowed Villa to seize control in midfield far too easily. Kovacic and Nunes have only recently returned from injury, too, but it's worrying that Guardiola doesn't have more trust in them by this stage of the season.
Phillips, meanwhile, remains right at the bottom of the pecking order, despite getting back to peak physical condition during pre-season. He was an unused substitute at Villa Park and looked utterly miserable watching on from the bench.
Guardiola's recruitment record at City has been almost flawless, but Phillips was a major misstep, and neither Kovacic nor Nunes has done anything to justify their price tag as yet.
