First Quarter: How Is Your Second-Year Head Coach Doing?Killing ItTexas A&M (1)
Whoever squashed the hiring of Mark Stoops two years ago deserves to have a football facility named after them. Torpedoing that attempted move paved the way for the Aggies to hit the home run that is Mike Elko, who is a mere 16–5 on the job—most importantly 8–0 this season.
By comparison, Stoops is 6–13 over the same span at Kentucky. Tougher job, sure, but he’s lost his juice and it seems impossible that he would have done anywhere near as well as Elko has in College Station.
After mauling LSU in Baton Rouge on Saturday night, A&M has one of the clearest College Football Playoff paths in the nation. The Aggies are 5–0 in the Southeastern Conference with remaining league games at Missouri on Saturday, where freshman quarterback Matt Zollers seems assured of making his first start for the Tigers; home against South Carolina, which has lost five of its last six; and at Texas, which is experiencing extreme turbulence.
Even if A&M loses one of those, a 7–1 team has a very good chance of making the SEC championship game. And the two teams in that game are definitely making the playoff.
How have the Aggies gone from good to great year over year? The offense is much better in its second season under coordinator Collin Klein. Quarterback Marcel Reed is improved and enjoying the transfer portal additions of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion at receiver. Those two speed merchants have combined for 76 catches, 1,261 yards and 12 touchdowns, with Concepcion also housing two punt returns.
Defensively, A&M is destroying opponents on third down. The Aggies have allowed just a 14.6% conversion rate in SEC games, by far the best in the league. It’s no coincidence that they also lead the SEC in sacks by a wide margin with Cashius Howell racking up 9.5 already.
Schadenfreude bonus: Texas is vastly underperforming given preseason expectations, which is making this fall even more enjoyable for A&M fans. Major bonus points awarded.
Indiana (2)
With a 19–2 record, Curt Cignetti remains on track to be one of the greatest hires in college football history. (We’ll discuss that further in a subsequent Dash quarter.) Like Elko at A&M, Cignetti immediately improved the product, then took it up another level in Year 2.
The 8–0 Hoosiers have excellent road victories over Oregon and Iowa, but they’ve absolutely demolished opponents at home. The combined score of six home games: Indiana 313, Other Guys 49. That says Cignetti has accomplished the previously impossible, transforming Memorial Stadium from mausoleum into snake pit.
Indiana’s playoff path includes three road games, and it will catch Maryland on Saturday with the Terrapins coming off an open date. But the Hoosiers are likely to be heavily favored in all remaining contests—and even if they finish 8–1 in the Big Ten, they are in great position to make the league title game with head-to-head wins over the Ducks and Hawkeyes.
Schadenfreude bonus: Purdue hasn’t won a Big Ten game since Cig arrived. His power is unlimited.
Unlike the two guys above, Willie Fritz was not an instant winner upon arrival last year. But like the two guys above, he’s cranked it up a level in Year 2.
The Cougars were 4–8 in 2024 with a malfunctioning offense that turned the ball over frequently. This year, with quarterback Conner Weigman and other portal arrivals, Houston is 7–1 and performing much more efficiently. Points per game have doubled, from 14 last year to 28.8 this year, and turnovers have plummeted from 2.3 per game to 0.5.
In the fluid Big 12, 4–1 Houston is in contention for the championship game but could need some help to get there. Its four remaining opponents have league records of 6–13, so winning out is certainly possible. The league’s two unbeatens, BYU and Cincinnati, will face off Nov. 22. Texas Tech (7–1, 4–1) owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Cougars.
Schadenfreude bonus: City rival Rice, while improved, still isn’t a threat to win the American Conference.
Holding Serve
Second-year coaches who are keeping things moving after inheriting successful programs:
Alabama (4)
Kalen DeBoer’s approval rating was at a perilous point after losing the opener to Florida State and dropping to 9–5 in his first 14 games on the job. Since then he’s largely doing what Alabama is accustomed to doing—winning games, rising to the top of the SEC standings and being forwardly placed in the playoff race.
That said, the performance at South Carolina on Saturday was dicey—the Tide trailed 22–14 late in the fourth quarter before a long, game-tying drive, a forced fumble and the winning score in the final minute. Alabama had its first two-turnover game of the season against the Gamecocks and continues to flail in the running game.
But some of that might have been inevitable. Going on the road to take on a proven upset-perpetrator in Shane Beamer after beating four straight ranked opponents is a dangerous script. Just finding a way to survive with a victory keeps the train moving in the right direction.
Schadenfreude bonus: Auburn is still a mess. Bonus points awarded.
Washington (5)
Jedd Fisch was never going to sustain DeBoer’s 14–1 magic of 2023, not after all the personnel departures to the NFL and other places (like Alabama). But he has continued to tenaciously defend Husky Stadium, with a 10–1 record there and the only loss coming against No. 1 Ohio State.
Fisch and the Huskies got a big home win Saturday over Illinois in a Big Ten ladder game, improving to 3–2 in the league and shoving the Illini down to 2–3. The next three are all winnable (at Wisconsin, vs. Purdue and at UCLA), which would set up a juicy home finale against Oregon.
Beat the Ducks to finish 10–2? That might be good enough for a backdoor playoff bid. But even a loss and a 9–3 record would be a successful year.
Schadenfreude bonus: The Huskies should feel more survivor guilt than joy over crippling Washington State by killing the Pac-12.
Duke (6)
The Blue Devils don’t just smoothly replicate past success when a good coach leaves—after Steve Spurrier, they had losing records in 22 of the next 23 years. But after replacing Elko, Manny Diaz is a solid 13–7, with a 4–3 mark this season.
Duke spent a lot of money in the quarterback market to bring in Darian Mensah this season, which so far has not elevated the program. The Devils have beaten the teams they should beat convincingly and lost to the better ones, which leaves this season to be largely defined by what happens in November.
At 3–1 in the league, a path to the ACC title game still exists. Duke is at Clemson on Saturday, hosts Virginia on Nov. 15, visits North Carolina and hosts Wake Forest. The entire spectrum of outcomes in those games, from 4–0 to 0–4, seems possible.
Schadenfreude bonus: The Bill Belichick Era has been an enjoyable disaster eight miles down Tobacco Road … but there are signs of progress from the Tar Heels. Duke had better be ready for that one.
Second-year coaches who were supposed to fix some things but haven’t gotten around to it:
Michigan State (7)
The Spartans already tried one John Smith, and the results were not good (they were 22–6 from 2003 to ’06 under John L.). The current one (Jonathan is his preferred appellation) isn’t doing any better. This latest Smith is 8–12, on a five-game losing streak and winless in the Big Ten this season. The Spartans have surrendered 31 or more points to every power-conference opponent this season.
There is an opportunity to finish decently, given the schedule, but at 3–5 and coming off a fourth straight loss to Michigan, the fan base might be losing its zest for this season. They can hear the basketballs bouncing at the Breslin Center and the puck dropping at Munn Arena.
Schadenfreude bonus: The Wolverines aren’t the national championship threat they were under the hated Jim Harbaugh, but they’re still better than Michigan State. No bonus awarded.
Mississippi State (8)
Make no mistake, the Bulldogs are better than in their first year under Jeff Lebby, and better than the lost year of 2023 under Zach Arnett. They had a field-storming upset of Arizona State in September, and pushed both Tennessee and Texas to the brink in October.
But the bottom line remains the same: Mississippi State hasn’t won an SEC game since ’23. Lebby is 0–12 in that category, and while Arkansas presents a golden opportunity to end that futility Saturday, three ranked opponents follow. Letting the Longhorns off the hook after taking a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter is the kind of collapse that can leave a mark on the psyche.
Schadenfreude bonus: None available, given Mississippi’s success this season. The only hope State fans can entertain is Lane Kiffin possibly jetting off to Florida.
(We are going to skip right over UCLA, which was so bad under DeShaun Foster that he was fired after 15 games. Check back after the next coach is hired.)
Still Undefined
The wait for definitive signs that they hired the right guy (or wrong guy) continues:
Michigan (9)
Sherrone Moore isn’t Harbaugh, as his 14–7 overall record indicates. But he has an all-time program victory over Ohio State last year on his résumé, and he should be given the opportunity to maximize freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood’s potential in 2026 and ’27. At 6–2 with three highly winnable games coming up, Moore is well-positioned to improve Michigan’s win total over last season and ramp up for big expectations next year.
Schadenfreude bonus: The bedeviling head-to-head ownership of the Buckeyes is great, but Ohio State’s 11-game winning streak since the last meeting—including the national championship—is a hell of a counterweight.
Given his team’s performance before and after his injury, Steve Angeli might be the most deserving Heisman Trophy winner. The Orange were 3–1 with the Notre Dame transfer and are 0–4 without him. So kudos to Fran Brown for landing Angeli, but he clearly hasn’t been able to figure out what to do without him. Syracuse averaged 38.3 points in games he played and has averaged 12.5 since.
Brown is entertaining, charismatic and a good recruiter. He’s upgraded the talent level and competitiveness. Closing with four straight wins to go 10–3 last season was a great start, and perhaps that would have carried over to this year with better injury luck. But at 3–5 with road games against Miami and Notre Dame still on the schedule, a backslide to a losing record seems inevitable.
Schadenfreude bonus: Pitt is surging while Cuse is slumping, so none is awarded.
The Dash College Football Playoff Bracket
The latest College Football Playoff top 12, plus matchups, if today were Selection Sunday. The first CFP selection committee rankings are coming Nov. 4.
Ranking 4–11 is increasingly difficult. Alabama has the most quality wins, but also has an increasingly bad loss to fading Florida State. The Dash is slotting Oregon and Miami ahed of the Crimson Tide for now. In the SEC pecking order, the Tide should be ahead of Georgia, which should be ahead of Mississippi, which is slightly ahead of Vanderbilt after big wins for the Rebels and Commodores.
BYU and Georgia Tech have done nothing wrong to date. They just haven’t done enough right yet to get ahead of the SEC logjam.
CFP Seeding
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Oregon
5. Miami
6. Alabama
7. Georgia
8. Mississippi
9. Vanderbilt
10. BYU
11. Georgia Tech
12. Navy
Also consideredNotre DameTexas TechLouisvilleCincinnatiHoustonFirst RoundNo. 12 Navy at No. 5 MiamiNo. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 AlabamaNo. 10 BYU at No. 7 GeorgiaNo. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 MississippiQuarterfinalsCotton Bowl: No. 4 Oregon vs. winner of No. 12 Navy at No. 5 MiamiSugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. winner of No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 AlabamaOrange Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. winner of No. 10 BYU at No. 7 GeorgiaRose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Mississippi
