Often we put too much stock into one game, whether it’s good or bad.
For example, the Jaguars might be AFC contenders again after a surprising win against the Bills. But Jacksonville, which had a slow first month of the season, might not even be the best team in the AFC South. The Colts defeated the Titans, and Texans lost on a last-second field goal vs. the Falcons.
On the other hand, the Patriots were crushed by the Saints—and that’s not their first ugly game this season. There’s probably enough of a sample size to predict how the Patriots’ season will end, with 12 games remaining on the season.
Here are five NFL narratives, which include the Jaguars and Patriots, that we deemed to be either fact or fiction after Week 5 of the NFL regular season.
Patriots will lose 10 or more games for the first time since 2000
Manzano’s view: Fact
This is shaping up to be the Patriots’ worst season under coach Bill Belichick after an embarrassing loss to the Saints dropped their record to 1–4. New England can’t score points offensively, and the defense hasn’t lived up to its high expectations (partly because of injuries to key players). The Patriots probably won’t do as bad as they did in 2000, Belichick’s first season: It was the last time they finished at the bottom of the AFC East, and they finished 5–11. But it’s tough seeing this New England team winning more than seven games with a daunting schedule remaining, including two games against the Bills and meetings with the Dolphins and Chiefs. After ugly back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Saints, the Patriots might not be able to hang with most teams in the NFL. They also might need a permanent quarterback change after benching Mac Jones twice in as many weeks.
