There are many intriguing matchups for NFL wild-card weekend, but there’s also plenty of uncertainty, making this a tough week for the best over/under bets.
Kansas City and Buffalo are expected to have freezing conditions with high winds come kickoff for their respective playoff games. Do we dare bet the over in any of these games?
Total lines are at least somewhat set for Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills. The same can’t be said for the matchup involving the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Eagles have a lengthy list of injuries, putting in question the game status of Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
There’s also a wait-and-see dilemma in the battle between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams. Lions coach Dan Campbell continues to express optimism about the possibility of stud tight end Sam LaPorta playing with an injured knee Sunday night.
We’ll avoid the playoff games in Tampa Bay and Detroit, and roll with the four other postseason games for this week’s best over/under bets (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Browns (11–6) at Texans (10–7)
C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins lit up the Indianapolis Colts’ secondary last week, despite not having wideouts Tank Dell, Robert Woods and Noah Brown. The Houston Texans’ dynamic duo could have success again vs. the Cleveland Browns, but it won’t be easy against arguably the best defense in the league. The Browns allowed a league-best 270.2 yards per game and 164.7 passing yards per game during the regular season. Expect the Texans’ offense to work for their points with lengthy drives, possibly leading to a few turnovers. The Browns’ explosive offense could hurt this under bet, but DeMeco Ryans’s crew has shown flashes of being a stout defense, evident by only allowing 20.8 points per game in the regular season, besting the 21.3 points allowed per game by the Browns. Joe Flacco and Stroud could deliver a few touchdowns in an entertaining game, but don’t be surprised if both offenses go cold in stretches.
2. Dolphins (11–6) at Chiefs (11–6)Over/Under: 43.5Prediction: Under
The forecast for kickoff in Kansas City is expected to be below zero degrees with high winds, and there’s talk of this possibly being the coldest game ever at Arrowhead Stadium. Definitely take the under for this bet, and not just because of the frigid weather. The Dolphins’ offense has gone cold several times against top teams. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the Dolphins’ offense has to deal with Chris Jones and his stout Chiefs’ defense. Kansas City only allowed 17.3 points per game in the regular season, which ranked second in the NFL. Also, the Chiefs’ offense has been out of sync most of the season, with inexperienced and unreliable pass-catchers. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce could go off against an injury-depleted Dolphins’ defense, but they will also have to deal with Mother Nature.
Steelers (10–7) at Bills (11–6)Over/Under: 35.5Prediction: Over
Last week, I made the poor decision to bet the over (35.5) on a rain-filled game between the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. I guess I didn’t learn my lesson because I’m going over for the snow playoff game expected in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon. The Buffalo Bills won’t be playing their backups, which was the case for the Ravens last week. Josh Allen & Co. are capable of scoring 20 points, even if they decide to take a run-heavy approach in the snow and windy conditions. Bills running back James Cook, who was named to the Pro Bowl, has had a handful of dynamic performances ever since Joe Brady took over play-calling as the interim offensive coordinator. The Mason Rudolph-led Steelers could have trouble scoring again, but they have received promising performances from running back Najee Harris and wide receiver George Pickens in recent weeks. I don’t feel too confident about this one, but this total line seems too low for a game involving the Bills’ offense.
Packers (9–8) at Cowboys (12–5)Over/Under: 50.5Prediction: Over
Expect plenty of fireworks in this matchup between Dak Prescott and Jordan Love, two signal-callers with plenty of weapons. Prescott threw for 36 touchdowns and Love recorded 32 touchdowns, which were the top two totals in the regular season. Yes, Love is making his postseason debut and could have trouble against Micah Parsons and his stacked Cowboys’ defense. But we’ve seen this defense struggle at times. For example, the Cowboys’ lopsided loss to the San Francisco 49ers and the shootout win against the Seattle Seahawks. Not many quarterbacks played as well as Love down the stretch, guiding the Packers to six wins in their final eight games of the regular season. Love is armed with young, talented pass-catchers, such as Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave. As for Prescott, he could have plenty of success with star wideout CeeDee Lamb and against an inconsistent Green Bay defense. Take the over and enjoy the touchdown fest that’s expected in Arlington, Texas.
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